A United Ireland Plebiscite Cannot Turn Into 'Another Brexit', Analysts Warn

Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."